After last night’s somewhat surprising announcement that Speaker Madigan has agreed to the Governor’s request to remove from the pension reform legislation the provision that would have shifted normal costs onto school districts, universities and community colleges, it now appears that particular provision is dead. Along with it, it appears that the ability of employers to replace the inadequate Tier II pension (for those hired after 1/1/11) wit a new cash balance plan is also dead.
The main provision of forcing a possibly unconstitutional choice between giving up one’s cost-of-living adjustments after retirement or giving up retiree health insurance, however, is still intact. As is the provision that would freeze pensionable earnings for those that want to keep their current COLA. And, rumor has it, the legislature is looking for other ways to save costs as well … so look for some additional benefit changes in the final package.
Also, people who don’t work with compound versus simple growth rates on a daily basis may not realize just how big the COLA changes are. So here is a simple but useful example. Suppose someone retires at age 60 and lives until age 85. Under the current law, they receive 3% COLA each year compounded. Under the proposed law, they get a 0% COLA for the first 5 years, followed by half of inflation or 3%, whichever is less. If inflation runs at 3% per year, this is a 1.5% non-compounded (i.e., simple) interest.
This may not sound like much. But don’t be misled — at age 85, this person’s pension would be 37% LOWER UNDER THE PROPOSED LEGISLATION. If we compute a present value using a 4-6% nominal discount rate, it is a 20% reduction in lifetime pension payments. This is why the proposal saves so much money. It is also why it is pretty clearly an impairment or diminishment of benefits!